Oscar Picks 2008

Best animated short film
"I Met the Walrus" A Kids & Explosions Production: Josh Raskin
"Madame Tutli-Putli" (National Film Board of Canada) A National Film Board of Canada Production Chris Lavis and Maciek Szczerbowski "Même Les Pigeons Vont au Paradis (Even Pigeons Go to Heaven)" (Premium Films) A BUF Compagnie Production Samuel Tourneux and Simon Vanesse
"My Love (Moya Lyubov)" (Channel One Russia) A Dago-Film Studio, Channel One Russia and Dentsu Tec Production Alexander Petrov
"Peter & the Wolf" (BreakThru Films) A BreakThru Films/Se-ma-for Studios Production Suzie Templeton and Hugh Welchman

Madame Tutli-Putli has the buzz.  I'm skipping live action short film and documentary short film; I got nothing.

Achievement in sound editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal): Karen Baker Landers and Per Hallberg
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Skip Lievsay
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney): Randy Thom and Michael Silvers
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Matthew Wood
"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Ethan Van der Ryn and Mike Hopkins

Achievement in sound mixing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal) Scott Millan, David Parker and Kirk Francis
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Skip Lievsay, Craig Berkey, Greg Orloff and Peter Kurland
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney): Randy Thom, Michael Semanick and Doc Kane
"3:10 to Yuma" (Lionsgate): Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Jim Stuebe
"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Kevin O'Connell, Greg P. Russell and Peter J. Devlin

I've never been clear about the difference on these categories.  I'm guessing that usually the award(s) go to films with clearly delineated sound and sound effects, where a boom sounds like a BOOM.  This yeaar, with all those great (and lengthy) silences in No Country for Old Men, I'll bet on the opposite.  No Country for two.

Achievement in makeup
"La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse) Didier Lavergne and Jan Archibald
"Norbit" (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount): Rick Baker and Kazuhiro Tsuji
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Walt Disney): Ve Neill and Martin Samuel

Winner: La Vie en Rose.  But please take note---Total nominations: Norbit 1, Zodiac 0.

Achievement in costume design
"Across the Universe" (Sony Pictures Releasing) Albert Wolsky
"Atonement" (Focus Features) Jacqueline Durran
"Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal) Alexandra Byrne
"La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse) Marit Allen
"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount) Colleen Atwood

Will win: Byrne.  Should win: Anyone but Wolsky.  Interesting backstory here.  Marit Allen just died (prior to the nominations being mailed out).  Her work was tasteful, but not as flashy as Byrne's.  A slim chance for a sentimental win here.  Oscar usually goes for period dress, the older and showier garb to win.

Achievement in visual effects
"The Golden Compass" (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners): Michael Fink, Bill Westenhofer, Ben Morris and Trevor Wood
"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" (Walt Disney): John Knoll, Hal Hickel, Charles Gibson and John Frazier
"Transformers" (DreamWorks and Paramount in association with Hasbro): Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier

The FX in the Golden Compass were cheap-looking.  Do we want Transformers to win anything?  No.

Best foreign language film of the year
"Beaufort" Israel
"The Counterfeiters" Austria
"Katyn" Poland
"Mongol" Kazakhstan
"12" Russia

Alas, all unknowns.  I got nothing here.

Best documentary feature
"No End in Sight" (Magnolia Pictures) A Representational Pictures Production: Charles Ferguson and Audrey Marrs
"Operation Homecoming: Writing the Wartime Experience" (The Documentary Group) A Documentary Group Production: Richard E. Robbins
"Sicko" (Lionsgate and The Weinstein Company) A Dog Eat Dog Films Production: Michael Moore and Meghan O'Hara
"Taxi to the Dark Side" (THINKFilm) An X-Ray Production: Alex Gibney and Eva Orner
"War/Dance" (THINKFilm) A Shine Global and Fine Films Production: Andrea Nix Fine and Sean Fine

Four war documentaries and Sicko.  As good as he is, there is no way that Michael Moore will ever grace the Oscar podium again.  For many reasons.  The buzz is on the well-reviewed No End in Sight.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)
"Falling Slowly" from "Once" (Fox Searchlight) Music and Lyric by Glen Hansard and: Marketa Irglova
"Happy Working Song" from "Enchanted" (Walt Disney): Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
"Raise It Up" from "August Rush" (Warner Bros.): Nominees to be determined
"So Close" from "Enchanted" (Walt Disney): Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz
"That's How You Know" from "Enchanted" (Walt Disney): Music by Alan Menken; Lyric by Stephen Schwartz

Three Enchanted options out of five.  No one saw August Rush, so no one has heard the song.  In this slot the recent trend has either to go very edgy (Three-Six-Maffia, Triplets of Belleville, Eminem) or to give it to a rock doyen (Bob Dylan, Phil Collins).  We'll go with Edge here, so it will be Once.

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)
"Atonement" (Focus Features) Dario Marianelli
"The Kite Runner" (DreamWorks, Sidney Kimmel Entertainment and Participant Productions, Distributed by Paramount Classics): Alberto Iglesias
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.) James Newton Howard
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney) Michael Giacchino
"3:10 to Yuma" (Lionsgate) Marco Beltrami

Should win: Atonement. It is the most memorable score, with the interpolation of a typing typewriter into its weaving orchestral theme.  Plus there is the thought that Atonement should win something, aanything.  I saw 3:10 to Yuma and didn't hear any music.

Achievement in film editing
"The Bourne Ultimatum" (Universal): Christopher Rouse
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax/Pathé Renn): Juliette Welfling
"Into the Wild" (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment): Jay Cassidy
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage) Roderick Jaynes
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Dylan Tichenor

As you probably know, Roderick Jaynes is an alias for the Coen brothers themselves, and not a real person.  So when he wins, who goes onstage to get the Oscar?  Will win: No Country for Old Men.

Achievement in cinematography
"The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros.): Roger Deakins
"Atonement" (Focus Features): Seamus McGarvey
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax/Pathé Renn): Janusz Kaminski
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage): Roger Deakins
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Robert Elswit

Very tough, very competitive category.  Roger Deakins will win, as he has two of the five nods, but it's more likely for the Coen Brothers'.  Big Oscar movies win the smaller awards too.  The Diving Bell is an object lesson in the things that can be done with a camera.

Achievement in art direction
"American Gangster" (Universal): Art Direction: Arthur Max; Set Decoration: Beth A. Rubino
"Atonement" (Focus Features): Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
"The Golden Compass" (New Line in association with Ingenious Film Partners): Art Direction: Dennis Gassner; Set Decoration: Anna Pinnock
"Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount): Art Direction: Dante Ferretti; Set Decoration: Francesca Lo Schiavo
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax): Art Direction: Jack Fisk; Set Decoration: Jim Erickson

There Will Be Blood---kind of a lifetime achievement award for Jack Fisk, who is Mr. Sissy Spacek.  He earns it, though; in that movie you sit up and take notice (well, not really) of the production design.  Sweeney Todd merits a mention, too.  And Atonement is more than an English manor---there's the staggering recreation of Dunkirk beach.

Best animated feature film of the year
"Persepolis" (Sony Pictures Classics): Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney): Brad Bird
"Surf's Up" (Sony Pictures Releasing): Ash Brannon and Chris Buck

When the choice is an indie critical fave and a popular critical fave, always bet on black go mainstream.  And what's a Surf's Up?  Never heard of it.

Adapted screenplay
"Atonement" (Focus Features), Screenplay by Christopher Hampton
"Away from Her" (Lionsgate), Written by Sarah Polley
"The Diving Bell and the Butterfly" (Miramax/Pathé Renn), Screenplay by Ronald Harwood
"No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage), Written for the screen by Joel Coen & Ethan Coen
"There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax), Written for the screen by Paul Thomas Anderson

They're all worthy.  Picture almost always takes screenplay with it, so it'll be No Country.  The movie ends flatly, but it's very true to its source material; Cormac McCarthy's novel ends flatly.  Some voters might not understand, preferring a traditional story arc.  Hampton and Harwood are script lions; if there's a backlash of some kind either could fall into the award.  Both have won before.  And while everyone's happy for Polley...not this year, as it's a very crowded field.

Original screenplay
"Juno" (Fox Searchlight), Written by Diablo Cody
"Lars and the Real Girl" (MGM), Written by Nancy Oliver
"Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.), Written by Tony Gilroy
"Ratatouille" (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Brad Bird; Story by Jan Pinkava, Jim Capobianco, Brad Bird
"The Savages" (Fox Searchlight), Written by Tamara Jenkins

This is a guarantee.  Diablo Cody will win; this is Juno's slice of the pie.  Ms. Cody is everywhere you look now, and very close to oversaturation.  That's a winner.  The problem I had with Juno is that there are too many zingers.  People don't talk that way in real life.  Well, I do, but hardly anyone else does.  My Should Win is Lars and the Real Girl---a quiet, funny movie with real emotional depth.  Very well-written, and nothing at all what you would expect going in, considering the Real Girl is a blow-up doll.

Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Casey Affleck in "The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford" (Warner Bros.)
Javier Bardem in "No Country for Old Men" (Miramax and Paramount Vantage)
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Charlie Wilson's War" (Universal)
Hal Holbrook in "Into the Wild" (Paramount Vantage and River Road Entertainment)
Tom Wilkinson in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)

Another tap-in.  No one comes close to Javier Bardem, and that's no knock on the others.

Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Cate Blanchett in "I'm Not There" (The Weinstein Company)
Ruby Dee in "American Gangster" (Universal)
Saoirse Ronan in "Atonement" (Focus Features)
Amy Ryan in "Gone Baby Gone" (Miramax)
Tilda Swinton in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)

This is the Upset category, where youneverknow what fresh hell will break loose.  Ryan is the favorite, but hers is a one-note, uninteresting performance.  And her Bahsten accent sucks.  Dee has less than five minutes of screen time, and doesn't do much with them. Awful nomination.  Blanchett just won; I don't think the double nominee bit will matter in this category.  Leaving Ronan and Swinton---if Oscar wants to reward either of two no-hope Picture nominees with a win, it will be here.  Ronan redefines "screen brat"; great stuff.  Swinton is always great.  I won't pick here.

Performance by an actress in a leading role
Cate Blanchett in "Elizabeth: The Golden Age" (Universal)
Julie Christie in "Away from Her" (Lionsgate)
Marion Cotillard in "La Vie en Rose" (Picturehouse)
Laura Linney in "The Savages" (Fox Searchlight)
Ellen Page in "Juno" (Fox Searchlight)

Two-horse race, too early to call---Christie getting a Lifetime Achievement award for a movie nobody saw, or Cotillard, who is eye-popping as the Little Sparrow.  They're both valid picks.  Another empty year for Linney, and Page is squeezed by the competition.  Blanchett has no business being here.

Performance by an actor in a leading role
George Clooney in "Michael Clayton" (Warner Bros.)
Daniel Day-Lewis in "There Will Be Blood" (Paramount Vantage and Miramax)
Johnny Depp in "Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street" (DreamWorks and Warner Bros., Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
Tommy Lee Jones in "In the Valley of Elah" (Warner Independent)
Viggo Mortensen in "Eastern Promises" (Focus Features)

Viggo is lucky to be here, so he'll have to be content with the recognition.  The Clooney thing I don't understand at all.  Elah?  Wha?  Depp's ship will roll in, one year, but not in '08.  Day-Lewis smothers all competition here, just as he smothers his movie.  Not just OTT, but way, way beyond hammy.  And that's why we love him.